NLTP - National Land Transport Programme

10-year financial forecast

Revenue forecast

Figure 4 shows anticipated revenue funding the NLTP. The anticipated revenue includes three elements:

1. Revenue from fuel excise duty, road user charges and motor vehicle registration fees using current policies and reflects income at the amount expected to be available in each year at that time.
2. Revenue from Crown appropriations to specific regions.
3. Anticipated revenue arising from full hypothecation of petrol excise duty, should the government choose to implement such a policy.

Recent forecasts of revenue from fuel excise duty (FED), road user charges (RUC) and motor vehicle registration (MVR) fees are below forecasts used to develop the 2006/07 NLTP. However because of the government’s revenue guarantee this has no impact on the first four years of the NLTP.

Revenue from Crown appropriations is shown at the forecast time of expenditure.

Regionally distributed funds are funded by revenue from fuel excise duty and a portion of road user charges. Anticipated levels of funding over the first four years of the programme are at the same levels as expected in 2006/07 due to revenue guarantee in place over that period. There has been a lag between R funded expenditure and revenue. The forecast of anticipated expenditure provides for accelerated R expenditure in order to expend the anticipated revenue by 2014. Should expenditure of regionally distributed funds not accelerate then total expenditure would fall below the levels shown in the NLTP.

Figure 4: Anticipated revenue and expenditure from 2007/08-2016/17

Notes

• The FED, RUC & MVR revenue is guaranteed for 2007/08–2010/11.
• Crown appropriations are shown when forecast expenditure is forecast to occur.
• The Crown has undertaken to provide funding for higher than forecast increases in state highway construction cost escalation for the years 2007/08–2010/11. This is not shown in the above graph as it is a contingency. An allowance has been made from 2011/12 onwards for possible cost increases in the state highway construction programme.
• In the 2006 Budget the government provided funding to restore the NLTP to a similar scope to that of August 2005. In May 2007 the government announced it was considering full hypothecation of petrol tax. This forecast anticipates that revenue from full hypothecation of petrol tax will be available for allocation within the NLTP.
• The government has committed to a three-yearly update process to look at the funding and expenditure for the upcoming six-year period.

Page created: 26 June 2007